This is the Year of Our Lord 2020 ‒ it is the best of times, it is the worst of times, it is the age of wisdom, it is the age of foolishness, it is the epoch of belief, it is the epoch of incredulity, it is the season of Light, it is the season of Darkness, it is the spring of hope, it is the winter of despair, we thought we had everything before us, then we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to Heaven, we were all going direct the other way … (Roughly based on the famous first paragraph of A tale of two Cities by Charles Dickens, which was written when he lived in Gad’s Hill Place, about 27 kilometres from where I am now in Sittingbourne. Dickens’ words help us to try and comprehend the sheer scope, depth and magnitude of these tumultuous corona times).
It is the best of times
- Back to basics
Suddenly the three billion of us who are in total or partial lockdown, realise that we are back to basics ‒ we stay at home; listen to the birds; enjoy our gardens or parks; spend time with our loved ones (often by video-link); exercise regularly; play games; only buy necessities; wash our hands; savour the tranquillity and silence; pray regularly; enjoy our favourite music; and pursue our hobbies. We have a large garden, it is wonderfully quiet, it is the most beautiful time of the year, so it is easy to get absorbed in your daily domestic activities, and to forget that many people are fighting to stay alive and many families are grieving the loss of loved ones. Fortunately, we as a world are united in purpose to overcome this virus, which does not happen often.
- Golden oldies
The UK’s oldest coronavirus survivor, Connie Titchen (106), was applauded by staff, who lined the corridors as she left a hospital in Birmingham. This grandmother of five, who fought the virus for three weeks, said that she could not wait to get back to her family. Mrs Titchen’s recovery follows that of Keith Watson (101) of Worcestershire, who had been discharged from hospital the previous week. The oldest coronavirus survivor in the world to date is Cornelia Ras (107) of the Netherlands, who recovered after falling ill after a church service in her nursing home. Another golden oldie, Tom Moore, a 99-year-old former army captain, inspired millions when he completed 100 laps of his garden in his Zimmer frame. In the process, he managed to raise an incredible £20 million in donations for the British National Health Service (NHS). Mr Moore initially set out to collect £1 000 for NHS charities.
It is the worst of times
- Economic woes
We are experiencing a worldwide pandemic with already well over 2.4 million infections and 160 000 deaths, with numbers climbing by the minute. On the economic front, the possible fallout is almost incalculable ‒ a deep and nasty recession is just about guaranteed. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) issued a stark warning, namely “the longer the shutdown, the greater the damage”. It forecasts the deepest global recession since the 1930s and predicted that the world GDP will shrink by 3 percent this year. In the UK, an “apocalyptic” Treasury report warned that failure to ease restrictions within the next few weeks would mean that six out of ten businesses will be out of cash within twelve weeks. The Resolution Foundation think tank said that as many as 11.7 million people could be unemployed in the next three months. Failure to act would mean “there won’t be anything left in the economy”.
- Huge increase in deaths from other causes
The second week in April saw the highest weekly death toll in England and Wales since official weekly statistics began to be recorded fifteen years ago, with fatalities running at almost 40 percent above the average. There were 6 000 deaths above the five-year average, with only 3 475 related to the coronavirus. This has been attributed to an increase in “other” deaths, possibly people with serious ailments who presented too late for effective treatment, people with chronic kidney problems or cancer who could not or were unwilling to undergo treatment, or patients who passed away while waiting for operations that could not be done now. At any given time, there are over 4 million patients on the NHS waiting lists. The other unknown factor is how many corona deaths there are in care homes, since the daily total of corona-related deaths only include hospital deaths. Richard Sullivan, a professor specialising in cancer and global health at King’s College London, states that “the number of deaths due to the disruption of cancer services is likely to outweigh the number of deaths from the coronavirus itself over the next five years”. This potential non-Covid-19 health crisis could result in the loss of 150 000 lives, which would have been saveable otherwise. Blood Cancer UK warned that there are more than 10 000 people in the UK with undiagnosed blood cancer.
It is the age of wisdom
- Early lockdown advantage
Ireland started closing down about 10 days before the UK went the same route. The Irish death rate is now 107 per 1 million of the population, while in the UK it is 215 per 1 million of the population. The stark differences in outcome between neighbouring countries remain, such as Spain with 419 deaths for every million of the population, and Portugal with only 64 deaths per million. Germany has an excellent 50 deaths per million, whilst Belgium is at an alarming 445 deaths per million. Sweden, on the other hand, with no lockdown policy, apart from trusting the public to behave responsibly, is at a death rate of 139 per million.
- Different racial vulnerability
The British Medical Association’s head has asked for an investigation into suspected vulnerability of black, Asian and other minority groups (BAME) to the coronavirus, as the first ten doctors who died after testing positive for Covid-19 were all identified as BAME. Trevor Phillips, the former head of the Equality and Human Rights Commission, also speculates why people of colour seem to be more at risk. In Chicago, a city in which a third of the residents are black, over two thirds of deaths have occurred in the black community, he says. The same pattern has repeated itself in London, where per capita, “the higher the proportion of non-whites in an area, the higher the rate of infection”. This pattern is not easy to explain, as the non-white groups are in most ways more unlike each other than they are different from whites. In conclusion, Trevor says: “Many believe that only faith will deliver us from this particular evil, but even they must know that science will tell us how.”
It is the age of foolishness
- Rebel without a cause
As leaders across the world act to prevent the spread of coronavirus with lockdowns and quarantine, President Alexander Lukashenko of Belarus describes concerns about the pandemic as “coronavirus psychosis”. He suggested that a strong drink, a hot sauna and some hard work in the fields would see off the infection. “The tractor will cure everyone there, the fields cure everyone.” (South Africans might be reminded of a former health minister, Manto Tshabalala-Msimang, who gained notoriety for her suggested remedies of African potato, beetroot and garlic in response to the AIDS pandemic). Subsequently in Belarus the factories continue to function, kindergartens, restaurants and universities are open and the Belarus football league, with spectators, is the only one still playing in Europe. However, Andrei Sannikov, a former presidential candidate, described the situation as catastrophic and said that the real figures could be five to ten times higher than the official 42 deaths so far.
It is the epoch of belief
- Controversial church closures (From ‘Letters’ column in The Times)
There has been a lot of criticism of the decision by the Archbishop of Canterbury to close churches and ban the clergy from the bedsides of the sick and dying. A letter in The Times came from His Honour Robert Hardy, who also lives in Borden, 10 minutes away. He stated that “Unless the Archbishop of Canterbury relents, next Sunday will be the first time our village here in Kent has not celebrated Easter inside its church for more than 800 years”. The Rev Dr Nigel Scotland sees it differently, “Indeed, for the first three centuries until the conversion of the Emperor Constantine Christians were persecuted and forced to share the Lord’s Supper around the domestic table. It seems that many millions will be doing something similar this Easter. It will truly be a case of Christianity begins at home”. Dr Peter Trewby feels that for a priest not to minister to the needs of a dying patient who requests help, is an abrogation of a centuries-old tradition of bringing comfort to the sick and dying. Charles Puxley also voices his opposition, when he asks “I wonder what Jesus would think. After all he didn’t have a problem mixing with the lepers when a spot of leprosy broke out in Judea.” Rev Cynthia Park, a retired Methodist minister from Hove is adamant that “Our beautiful sacred spaces should be remaining open so that everyone may find comfort in these troubling times. That our government has limited what is ‘essential’ to what feeds and exercises our bodies is hugely short-sighted. Our souls need nourishing too”.
It is the epoch of incredulity
- Heartbreak homes in the UK
The Brighton and Hove Clinical Commissioning Group came under fire when it was revealed in the press that it has instructed general practitioners to not resuscitate residents of care homes. Apparently care homes were instructed to check that they have a “do not resuscitate order” (DNR) for every patient. Peter Kyle, MP for Hove and Portslade, said: “Managers I have spoken to have been offended and deeply appalled by this. One care home manager had 16 residents out of 26 sign DNR forms in one day, you cannot tell me this was done as part of a thoughtful, considered and sensitive process which involved each of their families”. The care home managers were even instructed what to say to the families: “Frail elderly people do not respond to the sort of intensive treatment required for the complications of coronavirus. The risk of hospital admission may exacerbate pain and we therefore recommend that in the event of coronavirus, hospital admission is undesirable.” In a different part of the country, namely Wiltshire, Elizabeth Duncan, who used to work at Bletchley Park, famous for the “code breakers” during World War II, said residents in her care home were asked to sign documents agreeing not to be taken to hospital if they fell ill with the virus. As the virus sweeps through care homes, anger has mounted from families over the loss of loved ones and staff who have been left “broken” by multiple deaths in short periods of time, as well as by fears over inadequate personal protective equipment and support. The Bradwell Hall Nursing Home in Staffordshire for example lost 24 residents in a short time. Many care homes are on the brink of collapse as one in four carers are unable to carry on working, either because they are self-isolating, or living with someone with symptoms, or have to look after their children, who are now at home. The number of care home residents suspected to have died of Covid-19 may have reached 7 500, more than five times the previous estimate, the charity Care England said on 17 April 2020.
- President Trump withdraws funding from the World Health Organisation (WHO)
President Trump’s controversial and unexpected decision to stop funding for the WHO in the middle of a pandemic, not only robs the agency of 22% of its funding, but also detracts from America’s role as world leader. Trump accused the WHO of being openly biased in favour of China which only contributes 12% of its budget. In doing so, Trump opened the way for Beijing to step into an urgent funding gap, and possibly climb one step more towards global leadership. The American Medical Association’s President called it “a dangerous step in the wrong direction that will not make Covid-19 easier”, and urged Trump to reconsider. Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison, sympathised with Trump’s criticisms of the WHO, but said the WHO does a lot of important work in their region, and “we are not going to throw the baby out with the bathwater here”.
It is the season of light
- Pilots drive for Tesco and barmen learn farming
The arrival of the coronavirus triggered extraordinary changes in the labour market. In a matter of weeks, hundreds of thousands of suspended, sacked or furloughed employees managed to find permanent or temporary new jobs in those parts of the British economy not shut down by the lockdown, but desperate for more manpower, such as supermarkets, farms, care homes, food factories, and the health service. Peter Cheese, CEO of the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development, described it as an “absolute moment in history”. “Nothing comes close in recent history,” he reckons, “not even the arrival of over a million Poles and other Eastern European migrant workers in the Noughties”. The scale and speed of the job shift is breath-taking. Tesco took on 35 000 temporary workers in ten days. The NHS managed to attract 750 000 volunteers in a matter of weeks. The hotels, pubs and restaurants sector, which is almost entirely shut down, normally employs 2.9 million people, whilst the non-food retail sector, plus the entertainment and arts sectors account for about 6 million workers. The travel industry is also huge ‒ British Airways alone has suspended 36 000 staff. One British Airways pilot, Peter Login, has taken work as a supermarket delivery driver. He joked about swopping the 747 for a Tesco van. A few weeks ago, Tom Ruff was serving drinks in a Bristol city-centre bar, and now he is working on a farm sowing pumpkins and cucumbers, picking lettuces and feeding the chickens. From sowing to singing, Joanna Harries, a mezzo soprano, was touring with the Merry Opera Company and singing the role of Zerlina, in Mozart’s eighteenth century classic, Don Giovanni, when theatres were shut because of the virus. Joanna is now stacking shelves and operating the till in a co-op in Rotherhithe in southeast London. Richard Gregson, a bespoke tailor, has shut his business, Tatton and Gregson. So, instead of measuring businessmen and footballers for suits at £1 250-a-time, he is collecting online orders at a Morisson’s supermarket in Liverpool.
It is the season of darkness
- Dangerous saliva
A man has been arrested for wiping his saliva on products in a Lidl supermarket. According to the Dorset police, he entered the shop wearing a facemask and gloves, but was seen lowering the mask and licking his fingers before rubbing them on an item. A woman has been charged with assault after she punched a nurse and started spitting at two NHS security guards in Bolton, Lancashire. A lecturer, Jane Challenger Gillit, was given a six months suspended sentence at the Brighton magistrate’s court, after she spat at police and told them she had Covid-19. Gareth Rudge (34), from Newport in Wales was jailed for six months for punching a doctor in the face as he was treating Covid-19 patients.
- Terrified frontline medics
Hospital staff and care workers are “terrified” that they may be infecting patients and vulnerable care home residents because they are having to work without sufficient personal protective equipment (PPE). In a virtual admission that ministers have failed to get a grip on the supply of PPE, Matt Hancock, the health secretary, has appointed Lord Deighton, the man who led the planning for the London Olympics, as the government’s “PPE tsar”.
It is the spring of hope
- Desperate “last thing”
New guidance from the Intensive Care Society recommends that doctors should consider getting all coronavirus patients who need oxygen to lie on their fronts, to assist the lungs to transfer oxygen into the bloodstream more efficiently. That is because of less pressure from the heart and diaphragm on the alveoli of the lungs. Stacey Fresco, a mother of two daughters, aged 21 and 23, was on a life-support machine, unconscious, in an intensive care unit on Mother’s Day, 22 March. Her daughters took turns to read out to their mum, knowing that she had Covid-19, bacterial pneumonia and her kidneys and lungs were not working properly. The doctors told Adam Fresco that his wife was unlikely to survive the next couple of hours. Then the doctor turned round and said there was one last thing called “proning” that he could try. This is where the patient is turned on his or her stomach for about 12 hours. The doctor also warned that it could lead to a fatal heart attack, but since her chances of survival were negligible, this technique could be tried. Adam and his daughters gave their permission and went home. Two days later a phone call from the hospital gave the anxious family the wonderfully unforgettable message that Stacey was on her way to recovery.
It is the winter of despair
- UK: Surge in depression, alcoholism and gambling
Rory O’Connor, professor of Health Psychology at the University of Glasgow, stated: “Increased social isolation, loneliness, health anxiety, stress, and an economic downturn are a perfect storm to harm people’s mental health and wellbeing”. This followed the results of a survey done by Ipsos Mori, which found that 20 percent of people reported worries over mental health issues, such as anxiety.
- Internationally: Is the coronavirus going to destroy the European Union (EU)?
The coronavirus pandemic is exposing deep rifts and resentments at the heart of the EU. At issue are the demands from the hardest-hit countries, namely Italy, Spain and France, for the EU to share the enormous financial costs of the pandemic. Giuseppe Conti, Italy’s prime minister, warned the Germans and Dutch that they would “erase Europe” if they upheld rules that prohibit the sharing of debt. “Patient Europe will be dead,” he told Germany’s Bild newspaper.
